We’re thinking about autonomous vehicles all wrong
When we think of future autonomous vehicles, typically an image of some kind of self-driving futuristic pod comes to mind, with a living room/bedroom/home cinema/meeting space – basically a reconfigurable interior setup. We also think of the challenges of navigating today’s complex road systems, with autonomous and human-driven cars all sharing the road, and the challenges that brings; it would only take one driver error among a fleet of self-driving cars to create havoc. Moreover, with the autonomous vehicle pretty much paying its dues in the trough of disillusionment right now, we tend toward a narrow view of the technology, that autonomous vehicles in themselves are the endgame. But if we do, we’re thinking about them all wrong. Here’s why. Thinking about an autonomous vehicle in isolation is like thinking about a car engine today without the rest of the vehicle. Forbes illustrates this broader perspective by adding smart cities into the mix: “before autonomous cars can transform modern life, cities will have to transform themselves.” Siemens also notes the advantages of autonomous vehicle technology and how cities work in the other direction: “increasing traffic volume is creating problems in cities around the world, congestion, poor air quality, and less productive economies. Connected autonomous vehicles with electric drives could offer a solution.” But let’s step back. What’s the motivation for carmakers to get involved in cities when they have their plates full with autonomous, connected and electrification R&D spending – and why would they want to? If we take Elon Musk’s famous first principle thinking guidelines, what do carmakers really care about when projecting towards 2035? The first principle they worry about how to maintain and grow their revenues. They need to make money for stockholders and investors. Their roadmap toward those future revenue streams is not just based on autonomous vehicles; it’s based on connected, autonomous, electric vehicles operating within a smart city environment and they really don’t care if that means selling trips, experiences or physical cars. What they do care about having a differentiated product, which probably means a combination of physical cars, ride sharing, trip-selling, last-mile delivery vehicles and who knows what other economic opportunities that we haven’t even thought about yet. Trip upgrades via your smartphone? Your home cinema autonomous pod sells you a movie to watch as you travel on the interstate for Thanksgiving, with the carmaker taking a cut of the revenue. Who knows? The point is, carmakers are at the center of this logic diagram, and they have to solve the problem of integrating all the moving parts – from chip to city. The autonomous vehicle is ‘only’ a building block of this transportation future, although a hugely complex one. But once we climb out of the trough of disillusionment, we need to cross the chasm of integration, bringing all of the new mobility technologies together. This chasm is the step between Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous. Once we get to full Level 5, with all road vehicles operating autonomously under all road conditions, we will have solved several challenges, including how to handle that messy time window with a mix of autonomous vehicles and human drivers; how vehicle infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communications operates flawlessly; how cars integrate cleanly with other transportation modes to provide friction-less trip planning; and, how autonomous vehicles and pedestrians live together safely on our city streets. If future autonomous vehicles are a building block and not the end objective, what does this mean for the carmakers and their supply chain? It means a whole other set of parallel challenges to those outlined above. Starting at the micro level, how do they develop, protect and fully utilize intellectual property (IP) that will be the foundation of their differentiation? Things like high-level synthesis are powering the democratization of chip design for differentiated IP such as hardware accelerators for machine learning algorithms. We see carmakers already investing in this area, understanding that the integrated circuits that power the sense/compute/actuate functions in future vehicles will be a crucial advantage for product differentiation and time to market. It means the verification, validation and integration into the vehicle of embedded systems will require simulation tools and generative design methodologies for safe, secure operation. The vehicle behavior will also need to be modeled and proven robust long before taking the prototype to the testing and proving ground. And, it means that the vehicle integration into the smart city environment, and traffic modeling, fleet management and vehicle performance data will have to be managed in a cloud-based system, feeding data back to the design and manufacture sites for product optimization. And talking about manufacturing, how do we move from today’s large-scale car production toward small batch, reconfigurable, customizable vehicle interiors? How do we optimize materials flow and time, and how do we comprehend new manufacturing techniques that will become mainstream, such as additive manufacturing? So, what’s the point with all of this? There are 2 takeaways. Firstly, autonomous vehicles do not exist in a bubble. They are part of a wider transportation future that has many parts in play right now. Autonomous technology (rightly) gets a lot of media attention because it’s cool, futuristic and relatable. But we need to take a broad view when looking at how it plays into the future of mobility. Secondly, to solve the last batch of challenges outlined will require that technology companies also take a broad perspective, and ideally be invested in all these areas, playing an active part influencing standards bodies (for example, safety and security), legislature, cities, and pulling together all parts of the supply chain, from the complex integrated circuit manufacturers, through the tier 1 suppliers and the carmakers themselves, enabling IP sharing, co-development and collaboration. As we look to understand our customers’ challenges with future autonomous vehicles, we need context, broad perspective, and a deep understanding of how these often conflicting elements can come together,creating value through collaboration. Does it look daunting? From here, it just looks like the opportunity of
Collaboration – a powerful enabler of innovation
The growth in the electric vehicle (EV) market is undoubtedly gaining pace, with some commentators predicting that there will be 559 million EVs on the road by 2040 and 55% of all new car sales and 33% of the global fleet will be electric*. While we are still away from hitting these ambitious figures, we are seeing good progress towards creating a more sustainable transport solution. ABB is witnessing surging demand for public and private EV charging solutions, having sold more than 10,500 DC fast chargers across 73 countries. We are also supporting stakeholders across the globe to establish electric bus services to reduce our impact on the environment. If we are to deliver this clear vision for a sustainable, emission-free future, we need to continually innovate and develop new solutions to satisfy this increasing demand. We have a strong Research & Development (R&D) culture, that is continually advancing pioneering technologies in the field of electric mobility. We were one of the founders of both the CHAdeMO and CCS alliance charging standards, we launched our first DC fast charger in 2010, the first nationwide DC charging networks in 2012 and the first eBus charging networks in Europe in 2016. We believe there are three key disruptions aligned to the delivery of sustainable transportation for the future. Firstly, we need to see continued investment in the sector, both in the development of battery technology by vehicle Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to enable greater range and cost efficiencies, but critically in the development of a widespread charging infrastructure network to satisfy growing demand. In many markets, the current reality paints a different picture. When we look at the United States for example, while 200,000 EVs were sold in 2017, the country’s charging infrastructure is still ‘lagging behind’, with consumers lacking confidence and ‘range anxiety’ being a major barrier to electric vehicle adoption. In response, we are proud to be collaborating with Electrify America to create the largest network of fast charging stations the country has seen. Secondly, we must focus on standardization and operability. The automotive industry only needs to look at the electric public transport sector to see that adoption rates are significantly increased as the number of charging standards decrease. If we want to create positive change for the future, now is the time to replicate this for passenger vehicles, which will need a truly collaborative approach. Thirdly, we need to accept that we have to evolve our energy ecosystem to enable an emission-free future. A reliable power infrastructure with low maintenance costs is key for modern cities to address peaks in demand effectively. That’s why enabling safe, flexible and smart electrical networks is of crucial importance. The integration of energy resources, the installation of smarter home technologies linked to private EV charging and the adoption of EVs with expanded battery capabilities, could in the future turn homes around the world into self-sufficient grids. Car batteries could be used to not only store energy, but that energy could also be sold back to the grid, enabling residential and commercial communities to become active participants in the energy revolution. Future Proofing with High-power Charging Solutions Currently, the pace of change, both in commercial and consumer markets, is being driven by the need for faster and higher power charging. The sector is however faced by one key challenge, the capacity of current EV batteries. At the moment, DC charging is still too powerful for most consumer vehicles, but all that may be about to change with the launch of the first consumer car capable of taking this power, the Porsche Taycan, later this year. While current EV batteries don’t have the capacity to store the level of charge available from a high-power charger, technology like our Terra HP charger, serve as a future proof solution which will support the development of next generation of EVs. Capable of delivering 350Kw of power, it can add 200 km of range to an EV in a time frame not much longer than refuelling a traditional gas engine vehicle (8 minutes). Meanwhile, for buses and trucks, the industry is currently limited to a maximum charge of 600kW. We are confident that there is potential for evolution here too, with 1MW charging on the horizon. Our $10million investment in a new R&D Center, due to launch this June, includes facilities for expanding our capabilities in the rapidly expanding eBus segment and will see us continuing to evolve pioneering solutions in this field. The Power of Collaboration Hand in hand with technological progress, comes the need for greater collaboration, which is a powerful enabler of innovation within the EV field. Working with other high-profile players allows us to push the boundaries of technology and develop new solutions. With the sector evolving at such a rapid rate, this need for collaboration is greater than ever. We continue to work closely with OEMs and charge point operators to ensure technology not only meets but exceeds current needs to facilitate future growth. For example, ABB in conjunction with Nanyang Technological University (NTU), the Land Transport Authority and Volvo Buses, has just launched the world’s first 12-metre fully electric autonomous passenger bus in Singapore. This flagship project aims to prove that it is possible to provide fixed route and scheduled services powered by emission-free vehicles and demonstrates the fantastic advances which can be made in public transportation when these two pioneering technologies come together. Driving Innovation Taking the art of the possible one step further, we need to continually push the boundaries of what e-mobility technology can deliver. The ABB FIA Formula E Championship series is a fantastic example. It provides a powerful platform to test mobility electrification and digitalization technologies, while showcasing the potential to a much wider audience. Latest Formula E cars are now capable of doing 0 to 100 km/h in 2.8 seconds with a maximum speed of 280 km/h, thanks largely to significant gains in battery efficiency. The battery fitted to the new Gen2 racecars is heavier
